Canada’s housing market entered the spring season on a steady, if subdued, note. According to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), activity levels in March 2026 were largely unchanged month over month, pointing to a market that is stabilizing after several years of volatility.

Home sales across Canadian MLS® Systems were virtually unchanged in March 2026, dipping just 0.1% compared to February. At the same time, new listings edged down by 0.2%, continuing a trend of limited supply that has been in place since mid-2024.

By the end of March, there were 167,524 properties listed for sale across Canada. That is only 1% higher than a year ago and still 10.6% below the long-term average for this time of year. Overall inventory levels have generally been declining since May 2025, reinforcing tighter market conditions.

“Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky economic start to the year,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, in the report. “2026 is still expected to see a modest amount of upward momentum in sales and a stabilization in prices as some pent-up first-time buyer demand enters the market, but the forecast for the year has had to be revised downward. The timing of higher mortgage rates, along with the perception they may be temporary, could keep would-be buyers away at the most active time of year – April, May, and June – as they wait for rates to come back down.”

Balanced conditions across the country

The national sales-to-new listings ratio came in at 47.8% in March. While this is slightly below the long-term average of 54.8%, it still falls within the typical range that indicates a balanced market.

Inventory levels tell a similar story. Canada had five months of inventory at the end of March, unchanged from earlier in the year and right in line with historical norms. In general terms, markets favor sellers when inventory drops below 3.6 months and shift toward buyers when it rises above 6.4 months. Current conditions sit comfortably in between.

“While the interest rate situation has recently changed, what could be a challenge for a buyer looking for a fixed rate mortgage may also be seen as more choice and less competition for those choosing a variable rate,” said Garry Bhaura, CREA’s 2026-2027 Chair. “Spring tends to be a busier time of year for the housing market, even if it may not be quite as busy as we were expecting not so long ago.”

Home prices continue to stabilize

Home prices showed modest movement in March, offering early signs of stabilization. The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index declined by 0.4% compared to February. While still a decrease, it is smaller than the drops recorded in January and February, suggesting that price declines may be easing.

On a year-over-year basis, the index was down 4.7% compared to March 2025, a slight improvement from the 4.8% annual decline reported the previous month. This gradual slowdown in price declines aligns with tighter sale-to-list price ratios and fewer new listings entering the market.

Price trends continue to vary across the country. British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario have seen year-over-year declines, while gains in other provinces have helped offset those drops at the national level.

The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price stood at $673,084 in March 2026. This represents a modest 0.8% decrease compared to the same month last year, reflecting a market that is adjusting but not experiencing sharp declines.

CREA downgrades 2026 housing market outlook

CREA revised its housing market forecast, pointing to a slower-than-expected recovery in the near term.

While pent-up demand – particularly from first-time buyers – was expected to drive activity higher, rising inflation linked to recent oil price spikes has complicated the outlook. Higher bond yields have pushed up fixed mortgage rates, prompting some buyers to pause and wait for borrowing costs to ease.

As a result, CREA now expects 474,972 homes to trade hands in 2026, a modest 1% increase over 2025. Gains are anticipated to be led by British Columbia and Ontario, while activity in other regions is expected to remain flat or soften slightly.

The national average home price is forecast to rise 1.5% to $688,955 in 2026, with limited growth in B.C., Alberta and Ontario, and modest gains elsewhere.

Looking ahead to 2027, home sales are projected to increase by 2.1% to 485,071 units, while the national average price is expected to edge up 0.9% to $695,094. Price growth is expected to remain below inflation, keeping the national average near the $700,000 mark.