October 2024 was a standout month for the Canadian housing market, with home sales reaching their highest levels since April 2022. The surge in activity was widespread, reflecting strong buyer interest in major urban centers and beyond.
According to the latest market report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales recorded a 7.7% increase compared to September, marking the biggest monthly spike in activity in more than two years. The momentum was led by key markets like the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland, both of which posted double-digit gains. This broad-based upswing indicates a significant shift in market sentiment, driven by renewed confidence among buyers.
“The jump in home sales last month was definitely an October surprise, although with the big interest rate cut of 50 basis points announced during the last week of the month, the increase was more likely related to the surge in new listings we saw in September,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “There probably won’t be another rush of new supply like that until next spring, and at that point, mortgage rates should be close to their expected lows, as well. With that in mind, you can think of the October numbers as a sort of preview for what we might expect to see next year.”
New listings see a slight decline
While sales activity picked up, new listings dipped by 3.5% month over month in October. This decrease follows a strong 4.8% rise in September, leaving the overall supply at one of the highest levels since mid-2022. The decline in new listings was particularly pronounced in the GTA, a key driver of the national trend.
The combination of rising sales and fewer new listings caused the national sales-to-new listings ratio to tighten to 58%, up from 52% in September. This shift points to a market that is becoming more balanced, moving closer to the long-term average of 55%.
Inventory levels dip further
At the end of October 2024, there were 174,458 properties listed for sale across Canadian MLS® Systems, an increase of 11.4% compared to the previous year. However, this number remains below historical averages for this time of year. The national months of inventory stood at 3.7 months, down from 4.1 months in September. This is the lowest level in more than a year, moving the market closer to seller’s market conditions, which typically occur when inventory is below 3.6 months.
“October’s strong sales numbers across Canada suggest buyers have been in the market since rates began to fall in early summer, but they were waiting for the right property to come up for sale, which didn’t happen in a big way until September,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “The extent to which that will be able to continue between now and next spring will depend on the number of listings coming onto the market.”
Home prices hold steady
The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) showed a minor decrease of 0.1% from September to October. Despite these small month-to-month changes, national home prices have remained relatively flat since the start of the year. The non-seasonally adjusted HPI stood 2.7% lower than in October 2023, marking the smallest year-over-year decline since May, and signaling that the trend of falling prices may be easing.
The actual national average home price (not seasonally adjusted) reached $696,166 in October 2024, representing a 6% increase compared to October 2023. This rise marks a strong rebound from the lows seen at the end of 2023, as the market shows signs of renewed strength heading into the final months of the year.
